Election predictions for Guildford and South West Surrey

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In Guildford it could go either way, in South West Surrey there could be a big upset if the great and good stay at home. There is everything to play for.

Yougov predict:
Guildford: Small Conservative win
South West Surrey: Hugely reduced Conservative Majority
Cratus predict: 
Guildford:  Liberal Democrat win
South West Surrey: Conservative hold

Boris predicts: “If the price of loyalty is losing Guildford, then so be it”

 

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Political lobbying company Cratus have called Guildford for the Lib Dems (see their analysis below) and SW Surrey for Jeremy Hunt (no surprise there then). We checked out their team, and were surprised to see former Conservative Minister Stephen Dorell amongst the team, and also surprised to see him urging voters to support Paul Follows! Has he recognised that Mr Follows is a “man of the people” who doesn’t drive a car, let alone an expensive car, uses public transport – when it can be found, isn’t a homeowner at 33 years-old – let alone a Buy to Let landlord with a shedload of homes. And guess what, in addition to his public role – he works and is on PAYE! 
And then we did a double-take to see who the other political heavyweight on the team were other than former Waverley Leader Julia Potts!
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Here are the Associates of Cratus Communications who made the predictions above. Julia potts top row far left is the former leader of Waverley Borough Council.

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We prefer to stick to our friend’s suggestions for voting, and for this, we turn to former Waverley Councillor and local Planning Lawyer Adam Taylor-Smith, who may be supporting Jeremy Hunt, but seems to be urging us to vote Labour rather than Lib Dem this time. Does this mean things are even closer than we think?

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It cannot be true? Is the public following Follows?

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If I’m not careful that young upstart who is leading Waverley Borough Council may be stepping into my well-worn shoes. Shoes that are far too big for him to fill? After all, I am a sitting tenant in the SW Surrey seat. I am an entrepreneur, former Secretary of State for Health, Foreign Secretary, local Landlord,  etc… 

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Ok, so I am 33, I studied at the University of Surrey live in Godalming and lead the Town Council and deputy leader of Waverley Council.  I commute to Guildford to work for BAE Systems Applied Intelligence on Surrey research park (covering Standards, legal compliance and ethical conduct).  I enjoy travelling, cricket and ice hockey and I am a Tenor in the Guildford Choral Society.
As an aside, another motivation for my getting into politics has been my parents. My father is a retired soldier and my mother is an HLTA at a Guildford School. Both have had cancer in the last 5 years and survived – largely due to fantastic NHS staff –  and so access to these services and providing for health services locally is a big deal for me personally. Equally an affinity for the teaching and defence professions is something built into me.

As the Hustings in Farnham follow-on from Charterhouse – is the South West Surrey seat is beginning to look just a little shaky?

Unfortunately, the Waverley Web couldn’t attend the event at The Farnham Maltings, because football and football practice got in the way! Oh, well – boys will be boys.

However, suffice to say our inbox has been groaning under the weight of congratulatory messages from some of those who attended. It cannot have been attended by only members of The Green Party and the Liberal Democrats, can it? Surely not. We would love to hear from the local Tories to give their spin on all things General Election SWS 2019? Don’t be shy.

Claire Mathes wrote saying – Dear Waverley Web.
The warmth in the room towards Paul Follows was palpable. What helps though is that he has a recent proven track record at Waverley Borough and Godalming Town Council of doing what he says he’s going to do, obviously you’d think, but a thing that has been sorely lacking in previous administrations. He is well-informed at ground level and clearly cares deeply about the people who live and work in the area.
Jeremy, I’m afraid, just looked a little clueless.
Teresa Burton-Brown
I went to my first election hustings yesterday, in Farnham. It was very well attended.
Our sitting MP (Jeremy Hunt) looked surprised and uncomfortable to be attacked on his record on the environment, the NHS, education and Brexit. He seemed completely out of touch. For example, when asked what he would do about the climate emergency in this constituency, he replied that he had just put in an order for his own electric car (!)
 Paul David Follows as the Lib Dem/Remain Alliance candidate talked about food banks, affordable housing, proper pay for proper jobs, public transport and his efforts on the council to improve air quality.
He was very impressive and certainly has my vote.
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Has ‘Party loyalty’ flown out of the window in Guildford and villages?

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It was fairly obvious to all – that Anne Milton is definitely not a Boris Babe. And, it is also fairly obvious to all that “the chosen one” Angela Richardson is. 

Want to learn more about the Tory’s chosen one – Angela Richardson?

Anne Milton The former MP for Guildford, Cranleigh and eastern villages, who is now standing as an Independent was almost swallowed up by the Speakers’ chair in her efforts to avoid making even eye contact with Boris Johnson – during one of the last session of Parliament.

Yes, here at the Waverley Web we watched the parliamentary broadcast as Burly Boris on his way back from the voting lobby almost elbowed her out of the way, and she was forced to sit down, perhaps lie down, we know not. All we know is that for 5 mins she completely disappeared from view, and then appeared with a face like a slapped arse!

Her outburst over recent days underlines her true feelings for the man who may have ended her 15-year career in politics. Unless of course, the people she has tirelessly served decide that her dedication as a constituency MP, and experience of holding top ministerial jobs, and her professional achievements within the health service, can put her back in parliament.  We ask, why aren’t there more Independent voices in Parliament – working for US and not “THEM”unfettered by party whips?

Certainly, there is no contest between Anne Milton and “the chosen one” Tory PPP Angela Richardson. A Cranleigh parish councillor, who failed to be elected to Waverley Borough Council and with less experience of local Government than the village delivery man. A woman who even those canvassing for her in Guildford and the villages say they would have much preferred to be shlepping around the streets for a woman they trust – Anne Milton. 

 

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A poll of 100 people undertaken by the Guildford Dragon revealed the state of play.

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Charterhouse hustings welcome two candidates – sadly the Labour bloke was working.

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The school enjoys a lively debate with Jeremy Hunt and Paul Follows

Charterhouse was delighted to welcome South West Surrey’s incumbent MP, Jeremy Hunt (Conservative) and Paul Follows (Liberal Democrats) for the School’s first hustings event.

Both candidates took time out of their busy campaign schedules to attend the hustings and present their policies to our pupils. Sadly, the Labour candidate for South West Surrey was unable to attend, but we look forward to welcoming him for future events. The event was well-attended by pupils and teachers alike who commented that it had been a highlight of their year so far.

Deputy Head Boy and A Level Politics pupil, Oba Agboola welcomed the candidates to the school to enormous cheers from the crowd. The event was chaired by A-Level Politics pupils, Gabriel Brown and Anthony Gosnell, and Year 10 pupil, Shiv Pillai. They all did a fantastic job, asking the candidates questions which had been submitted in advance by pupils and staff and then leading audience questions in response. What an incredible accomplishment!

Hard-hitting questions put to the candidates ranged from the UK’s approach to Brexit and whether trust in UK politics was irreparably eroded in light of recent events. Both candidates answered the questions in an informative, professional and dynamic way, and the audience left with many issues to reflect upon.

Charterhouse wishes the candidates the best of luck as they continue their election campaigns.

 

 

 

 

 

Now Fact-Checking the Tories ‘In Touch.’

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Or perhaps more to the point former MP for SW Surrey Jeremy Hunt’s ‘In Touch.’ Because the latest leaflet  has very little to do with Tory achievements in ‘Your Waverley.’

Just a bit of trumpet blowing for ~Our Jeremy – or what?

But there is something very worrying going on here.

Because he knows, and we know, the police know and more important the residents of Farncombe and Godalming know who was behind the campaign against the spate of anti-social behaviour that has hit the area.

You know full well that it was the frustrated residents of Farncombe & Godalming that prompted a public meeting which was hosted by Cllr Penny Rivers and Cllr Paul Follows. They hosted a session for 220 people held in Farncombe, to which you were invited, and to which you didn’t attend. You can read all about that September meeting here. It was held at a time you were ‘spending more time with your family.’ And twittering to Boris Johnson saying you hoped he was having as much fun being PM as you were having not doing itThe fightback​ has begun to deal with anti-social behaviour – “and make Farncombe great again.”

Waverley  Cllr Rosoman and Cllr Paul Follows pledged to follow up on all the actions suggested by the public and subsequently, together they convened a meeting of the council, police, schools and youth groups partnership committee to deal with the serious issues and are implementing their actions.

Mr Hunt, you put out a survey which might as well have asked if people want free money. 91% support for more visible policing…of course people want that.

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So come on Jeremy, be honest,  it is hardly YOUR CAMPAIGN  is it really ?- So apologise to the residents of Farncombe and Godalming – for attempting to hijack THEIR campaign as your own.  Because the public isn’t stupid and they have ways and means of ensuring you understand that.

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Lib Dem Fact Check leaflets.

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The Waverley Web has begun the process of ‘Fact-Checking’ some of the literature that has been dropping through your letterboxes in recent weeks.

Having carefully read through this one, it would appear the Lib Dems have forgotten one very big achievement. It hasn’t mentioned that for the first time fo years, residents can now watch a webcast without interruption. Councillors are sitting, and have been told when to switch on their microphones and the public can actually hear the debate.

It is also very noticeable that webcasts are put up almost immediately, during the previous administration it sometimes took almost a week!

The WW applauds you. But sincerely hope that the LD eye doesn’t come off the Waverley ball due to a General Election?

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Prominent local Tory Liz Townsend resigns from the Conservative Party.

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Cllr Townsend – Waverley Borough Councillor for Cranleigh and  Chairman of its  Parish Council has today announced her resignation from the Conservative Party.

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Waverley Borough and Cranleigh Parish Cllr Liz Townsend is now hand-in-hand with former MP Anne Milton in their efforts to put ~an Independent MP for the Guildford & Villages into the seat at the General Election. 

It has been obvious to anyone who watches the Waverley Borough Council meetings on its webcast – sad souls that a handful of us residents are! That Cllr Elizabeth Townsend has become an increasingly independent thinker – and doer. 

Like many councillors before her – her politics came with a small p – but her Dogged Determination to serve Waverley, and in particular Cranleigh residents,  – came with a BIG D. Which sometimes took her out-of-step with Tory colleagues. Particularly with her concerns for the environment.

 Although seemingly overlooked and undervalued by some of her own Waverley Conservative colleagues, she is highly regarded by the public and her colleagues in all the other parties. Cast your minds back to a time when Tory-controlled Waverley refused to allow her to join the influential Joint Planning Committee.  A committee faced with major applications – including Dunsfold Park Garden Village a 2,600 home – development that would have a major impact on Cranleigh and its services.

So it came as no surprise to us, here at the Waverley Web that Cllr Liz Townsend has resigned to-day from the Guildford & Villages Con Assoc – to become, what perhaps she always has been – an INDEPENDENT. 

As Chairman of the parish council,  she single-handedly masterminded Cranleigh’s Neighbourhood Plan – a feat of enormous and time-consuming proportions, as it maps out Cranleigh’s future and underpins Waverley’s Local Plan.

She has fought tirelessly for the people of Cranleigh and beyond, cares passionately about the environment, and the effect development is having on the character of the countryside both on her own patch and on the areas of Godalming, Haslemere and ours here in Farnham. nobody shows more frustration at the loss of habitat, loss of ancient woodland, hedgerows, and TPO covered trees than Cllr Townsend. She has shown herself to represent our beleaguered town of Farnham with exactly the same fervour as her own area. There is nothing parochial in her fight for what is right for the people of Waverley. But faced with a choice of what is right for the country has prompted a once committed Tory to hand in her card.

So let’s all hope that the new Coalition Alliance that is now running ‘Your Waverley’ will recognise her immense skills, and reward her courageous stand – with more responsibility for shaping our borough over the next four years. Because there is little doubt, Waverley’s Tory Group has lost one of its best assets. We wonder what Cllr Potts will have to say now her ranks are being depleted further? Watch this space.

Paul Follows - Lib Dem Godalming

Councillor Paul Follows, Deputy Leader of Your Waverley said:

The cross-party administration of Waverley Borough Council is very pleased to welcome Cllr Towsend to join the governing group of (now) 35 councillors.

Cllr Townsend is known for being a hardworking, principled local councillor and will be, I am sure, an asset to the group in our ongoing work for the residents of Waverley.

It is clear that the Conservative party has in recent months shifted to the right and to a place where moderate, centrist, pro-remain and pro-environment Conservative councillors and supporters feel uncomfortable and ultimately that they have no home. Leaving a party of your own choice takes great courage and many of the group understand that position. There will always be a place for such people in the cross-party alliance whether they sit as a member of a party or as an Independent.

Welcome, Cllr Townsend. Paul Follows

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Want to learn more about the Tory’s chosen one – Angela Richardson?

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And when we say we want to know a little bit about them, we’re not referring to the spiel that the candidate and their team are busy spinning.  Oh no!  We’re talking about going the extra mile – as all good cleaners and forensic investigators do – and pulling out the sofa to see what’s lurking behind and beneath it!

And this is what our small cluster of spiders have found in their search for more information about “Offshore” Angela Richardson, the Conservative candidate for Guildford & Villages, who wants to fill Anne Milton’s shoes!

As it happens, there wasn’t much dust under Mrs Richardson’s sofa — but something potentially unpleasant was lurking under a stone in her husband’s rockery?

According to our Cranleigh Cluster, in 2009 Mr Angela Richardson – AKA Jeremy Bruce Richardson – became a member of an outfit called ‘Keepstone’, a Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) formed to invest in creative selling, e.g. “of rights to a song or idea for a book.”

Under said scheme, members – like Mr Richardson – “invested” significant sums of money – much of it borrowed from Banks (not that we’re suggesting Mr Richardson had to borrow, we’ve no idea how healthy or otherwise his bank account is) – in the hope of “significant benefit.”

At the time, Limited Liability Partnerships were a popular tool for wealthy individuals – such as Gary Barlow and Chris Moyles (more of whom later) – to, well, not to put too fine a point on it, to dodge tax!  That was until HMRC won a few high profile court cases against them – referred to as  “Icebreaker” cases!

www.gov.uk/government/news/icebreaker-tax-avoidance-scheme-crushed

To cut a long story short and for those who don’t have the time or inclination to follow the link above, over their morning coffee, the Courts found in favour of HMRC who claimed the schemes where designed purely for tax avoidance purposes with most, if not all, of the ventures unlikely ever to make a profit!

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In Keepstone’s case, the Limited Liability Partnership was formed in October 2006 and, therefore, one would normally expect the first financial year to end in October 2007. However, for some reason, this latter date was subsequently changed to 5 April 2007, which just happened to coincide with the end of the 2006/7 tax year. Well, it would, wouldn’t it?!

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According to our researchers, Jeremy Bruce Richardson – AKA Mr Angela Richardson – was a partner in a Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) called “Keepstone LLP” https://opencorporates.com/officers/194721384.

Mr Richardson’s involvement in Keepstone ended in 2015 – the year after the HMRC “Icebreaker” Court judgements.  Quelle surprise!

Are we being a tad mean?  After all, Mr Richardson might have been as gullible as Messrs Barlow and Moyles claim they were.  And, by way of explanation, he might also claim, as they did, that he didn’t really understand what he was investing in, he just did what his accountants and financial advisors recommended …

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Trouble is, unlike Messrs Barlow and Moyles, Mr Richardson was married to Angela, whose CV (see below) reads like that of a woman who knows her way around a balance sheet and a tax return:

 

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We can’t help feeling that given Mrs Richardson’s former profession she would – or should – have recognised a tax dodge when her husband stepped – or stumbled – into one! 

Background.

Mr Richardson’s involvement in Keepstone ended in 2015 the year after the judgement. Which you can read here;  https://www.wilberforce.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014-UKFT-416-TC.pdf 

As we continued our search it appears  Angela ran something called “Winnard Limited” from 2002-05. For we know not what? The industry code for Winnard say Industry Codes 80.42: Adult and other education.https://opencorporates.com/companies/gb/04423277

Looking at her husband’s page here https://opencorporates.com/officers/40022688 we can see the sidebar with “Similarly named officers” which shows a couple of other companies. We can only really match on names because that’s all that Companies House can give us (they don’t make any attempt to prove identity or match officers to a particular person).

One way to tell whether an LLP was probably used for this purpose is to look at the list of partners. In the case of Keep stone LLP, we can see a reference to “Lothbury Finance Ltd.”. This is the same “Lothbury Finance” which is called out in paragraph 47 of this judgement https://www.wilberforce.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014-UKFT-416-TC.pdf where HMRC is pursuing a bunch of related LLPs for their attempt to dodge tax.

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Some politicians do not know the meaning of the word – RESPECT!

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Some Tories are showing themselves to be as disrespectful to the fallen – as they are to the voting public. 

You may be unable to spot all those Waverley Borough Councillors who lost their seats in the May elections, but thankfully we here at the Waverley Web can!

 

One ousted Tory Jim Edwards commented on this scurrilous blog that the Lib Dem candidate had dared to put up a poppy on his post. A post that was informing everyone that he had absolutely intention of campaigning during the Remembrance Day period!  What Humbug!

What a difference a day makes?

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Was it just former Councillors invited? Or just Saga members?

However, he failed to mention that Angela Richardson the new Boris Babe surrounded herself and her NBF with… a wreath of the words…  ‘At the going down of the sun, and in the morning… how disgraceful was that?! Boris’s new babe!

Don’t worry Angela – once met never forgotten. And the WW only met you once! And, that was when you were asking us for money to help the Guildford & Villages Con Assoc – ensure Anne Milton was elected.

She’s not just Boris’s Babe though? She has even managed to persuade Matt Hancock the former Secretary of State for Health down to the old Cranleigh Village Hospital to-day for a photocall. Our Annie couldn’t manage that even though she was a Health Minister for years. But then, she didn’t buy her way into the Conservative Association – she earned her way in.

Though of course, Annie took her gun to health officials on numerous occasions while in Government – including those who closed Cranleigh’s community hospital.

PS Matt Hancock failed to show up!

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Boris’s new babe!

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Getting up close and matey certainly worked for Boris’s new babe Angela Richardson.

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Having schlepped around the country from Canterbury to Totnes – Ewhurst resident, Angela Richardson whose most important achievement to date has been to campaign to keep Cranleigh public lavatories open all hours is now flushed with her latest success.

Last night Thursday the New Zealander was endorsed by the Guildford & villages branch of the Conservative Party as the chosen-one to oppose her erstwhile colleague and former MP Anne Milton. Ms Milton announced this week she will stand as Independent.

You may read why here:

Its #Annes Still Standing.

The Tory activist who worked tirelessly clambering up the greasy pole, but slipped down a couple of rungs when she was rejected by Cranleigh villagers in the May Waverley borough council election, could soon achieve her long-held ambition to fill the Guildford & Villages seat at Westminster.

Boris’s new Best Buddy was voted in at the Harbour Hotel in Guildford?

Waverley Web Wonders who will fill her parish council stilettoes now? Or, was it as everyone believed, that Cranleigh Parish Council merely a stepping-stone onto bigger things.  With the Conservative vote now splitting in all directions – could Guildford find itself in Lib-Dem territory again. Because Zoe Franklin has been out and about long-since campaigning to turn Guildford a brighter shade of yellow. Could she now follow in the footsteps of the highly respected former Guildford MP Lib Dem Sue Doughty?

Didn’t Boris say recently that the price of party loyalty may be to loose Guildford?

And is this the woman who could snatch victory from the two warring Tory women?

Screen Shot 2019-11-07 at 23.08.35.pngZoe, a former borough councillor and Guildford resident for nearly 20 years, won an impressive 24% of the vote for the Liberal Democrats in the 2017 snap General Election.

Ciaran Doran, chair of Guildford Liberal Democrats, said: “I am delighted that Zoe will continue as our parliamentary candidate. As well as being well-liked and respected by our members and residents, she is very hardworking and deeply committed to Guildford, Cranleigh and the Villages. She has real vision for the future of Guildford and villages and she is determined that our community deserves better than the present Conservative leadership we have at every local level.”

Zoe said: “I am committed to fighting for real and positive change in five key areas locally and nationally,” and summarised her campaign:

  • I want the people of the UK to have the final say on Brexit through a People’s Vote;
  • I am determined to help us build a future where everyone can fulfil their potential, regardless of background;
  • I want a future where our NHS and social care services get the funding they need to properly meet the needs of local people;
  • I want a future where we build the right homes in the right places with the right infrastructure while vigorously tackling the social housing crisis; and
  • Finally, I want a future for us that is environmentally friendly, with greener energy and transport methods, while waging war on plastic waste and pushing for urgent action to reduce local air pollution.”

Zoe is supported by her colleague Paul Follows, Deputy Leader of Waverley Borough Council, Leader of Godalming Town Council, and the Lib Dem  Parliamentary Candidate for the SW Surrey seat – which includes parts of Waverley – formerly held by Jeremy Hunt.

Zoe said: “We have been let down again and again by our Conservative MP and Conservative-run councils and we deserve better. I believe we Liberal Democrats, working with and for the people of Guildford, Cranleigh and the Villages, can build a better, brighter and fairer future for everyone in our communities.”