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Lies, damned lies and statistics?

Here at the Waverley Web we use data provided to us by the highly respected Health Service Journal (HSJ)

You will see the statistics below revealed two days ago (27 April). However, our only comment is:

How can any conclusion be reached about ‘peaks, flows, flattened or downward curves when deaths in the community in people’s homes, care homes and hospices are not included in the figures. If Scotland’s First Minister can do it – then why can’t we? Does this make a mockery of the so-called ‘scientific approach’ which looks at the data?

Also: There is a quite fascinating disconnect between peopl’s perception of the UK from inside and from outside the country. Whilst here coverage is mostly serious and calm, from our followers outiside the UK their perception of what is happening over here is very different. They are frightened and outraged by what is happening in the UK. Yesterday (a follower contacted us)  – Australia had 82 deaths, and anyone disobeying the strict rules during the height of the epidemic was fined $5,000 dollars. Now their beaches are open.

Yesterday it was announced that there have been 5,500 deaths in nursing homes.

P.S. at the bottom of the page.

 

The HSJ’s unique analysis shows the spread of hospital deaths confirmed as coronavirus cases to date, by trust and area, as well as the regional growth trends.

The deaths in English hospitals of a further 329 people who tested positive for coronavirus have been reported today (27 April). The cumulative total is now 18,749. This has now gone up yet further since.

The figures were collated between 5pm on 25 April and 5pm on 26 April, but due to the need to inform relatives and authenticate reports, many of the deaths occurred earlier than this period. It is also very likely that some deaths which did occur during these 24 hours — and before — have not yet been recorded, normally for the same reasons.

The delays to reporting mean the growth curve of deaths for recent days appears flatter than it actually is.

The figures do not include those who have died from the virus outside of hospital, which is an increasingly significant number, nor those where covid-19 has not been specifically recorded as a cause.

The running weekly total of confirmed hospital deaths continues to fall – it has dropped for 11 days successively up to 21 April, the most recent data point with robust data due to delays in reporting some deaths. The total has decreased by 28 per cent from the pandemic peak on 10 April.

Deaths and the number of people in hospitals in England continue to fall, though they are not dropping consistently across the country.

The seven day rolling average of total deaths has fallen faster in London compared with other regions, including the Midlands. The North West, however, is falling steeply after a rapid ascent, having peaked nearly a week after London.

The North East and Yorkshire appears set for a more gradual decline than the North West. The South East region is also showing a slower decline, while the East of England and the South West, as yet the least affected region, appear to have stalled.

Our other covid-19 data analysis includes: How coronavirus peaked and deaths by STP.

rise-and-fall-deaths-regions-27.4.20

Our other covid-19 data analysis includes: How coronavirus peaked and deaths by STP.

P.S. The Government has told local councils – in our case Surrey County Council – to open up our recycling centres.

WW wonders how long tht will take?

 

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