Can the Lib Dems shunt Hunt from South West Surrey?

JeremyHunt_kingofbuytolet

Well Lord Ashcroft certainly seems to think so. And judging by the recent Armageddon type Tory defeats at the local and Peterborough elections – WW thinks so too.

Lord Ashcroft polls have released a post-election poll of voters’ intentions for the next General Election. Based on his results, Flavible Politics has produced a map of likely results by constituency – and this shows Waverley as a LibDem gain:

Screen Shot 2019-05-30 at 13.46.48.png

Not only SW Surrey either, but also Guildford, Woking, Mole Valley, Esher & Walton and Reigate in Surrey (and a very narrow loss in Elmbridge), and eighty more gains across the country.

Is this even credible? At first glance, clearly not – but let’s look a little deeper.

In the local elections for Waverley borough three weeks ago, the Conservatives took only 38.7% of the total votes cast, against 27.3% for the LibDems, 20.5% for the Farnham Residents Association, 6.8% for Labour and 4.1% for Greens.  But there was in effect a “progressive alliance” between the LibDems, Greens and Labour, taking the total progressive vote to 39.2% – just a fraction behind the Conservatives.

Then, in last week’s EU elections, Liberal Democrats topped the poll on 35%, followed by Brexit on 28.8%, Greens on 14.5%, and Conservatives on only 11.5%! Conventional wisdom is that the EU results were distorted by the dominance of Brexit, but – “it ain’t necessarily so”.

Lord Ashcroft’s poll, on which the projection is based, did not only ask about future voting intention, it also enquired about, and analysed, past voting history, in the last general election, as well as last week for the EU. 

His analysis showed that while yes, some of those who have switched from Labour or Conservatives to LD, or to Farrage’s Brexit, would return to their original party for a general election – not all of them would. Hence, Conservatives would not recover to their earlier level of support – and Liberal Democrats would retain a substantial share of their newfound (or newly returned) supporters.

If this projection turns out to be sound, that would create an extraordinary situation where nationally, just 4% would separate four parties:

Of course, it’s not that simple: what voters tell pollsters they will do, and what they actually do, are often very different – especially when the next general election could be a long way off. Circumstances will change, new events will get in the way. But what is surely true, and will remain so, is that we are in a period of remarkable fluidity in British politics, where extraordinary developments have come to seem almost commonplace: who would have predicted just three months ago, that we would end up with 16 MEPs?

The idea of Liberal Democrats winning SW Surrey in the next general election may well be just too fanciful to be taken seriously – but the possibility of getting at least much closer is surely not?

So thank you, Lord Ashcroft.

 

 

3 thoughts on “Can the Lib Dems shunt Hunt from South West Surrey?

  1. It sounds like you have an additional contributor. The voice of this blogger is very different to the other regulars. You should check out Facebook, the Cranleigh Community Board. Someone has written that the sole purpose of this blog is to divide Cranleigh, that your posts are less than truthful, and that you are the mouthpiece of a large developer (which one?)… it’s getting a bit heated. Things are being revealed on there that your spiders seem to have missed.

  2. Hi Bunty. You may have missed this, but as we have explained before, the Waverley Web is an exercise in teamwork. Our contributors come from all over the borough of Waverley though we are mainly centred in Farnham – which is the largest town.

    Our team consists of a group of men and women with different styles of writing. Some quite serious, other like to have a bit of fun. However, although none of us are journalists, we do follow guidelines, and present the truth, as it is presented to us. Nobodyis forced to read the WW- it can be deleted with the click of a key. We do nt advertise it, or promote it in any way.

    If we are wrong, we apologise, and correct the information – though this is not always easy as ‘Your Waverley’ is a very difficult organisation from which to gather information. It is not what it says on the tin – honest and transparent. Anything but. We hope under new management that will change?

    It is most certainly not the sole purpose of WW to divide Cranleigh of any other town or village. Though may of our followers contact us with their mounting concerns over in the East which is presently undergoing enormous change. We hear regularly from The Cranleigh Society and many others. Their concerns are mounting because they feel ignored and sidelined.

    As for the Cranleigh Community Board’s operator/censor claiming we are the mouthpiece of a major developer – the saying – pot calling the kettle black – comes to mind.

    We will say this once more. The WW supports housing and other development on brown field sites first and foremost. Sites wherever they are – here in Farnham, Godalming and elsewhere in the borough. Got it?

    Our spiders are not aware of the concerns you mention – as we have been banned from the Board. However we do ocasionally post on the Cranleigh Community Group that doesn’t inflict censorship on its members.

    Perhaps someone would be kind enough to capture the heated debate for us? Then perhaps we can comment. However, perhaps theCommunity Board censor doth protest too much about anyone being a developer’s mouthpiece don’t you think?

  3. This was unfolding on the Cranleigh Community Group on Facebook. It seems to centre on a planned folk festival which is a fundraising event for a Church which is not taking place on the showground (that’s going to be a car park). A man called Martin and a woman called Jody seemed a bit testy and Martin was making some bold statements, but then got upset and left the group. I don’t know what’s going on really, but it does seem a lot of bother to build a temporary road for a one-off event when we have an excellent showground already. Couldn’t the organisers give the money they are spending on the road to the church and use the showground instead?

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.