The Waverley Web has been studying the very informative Exel- spreadsheet provided to Waverley councillors and the public by Farnham Residents’ Cllr Jerry Hyman. We have linked it into the page below as it shows in detail, town by town and village by village the spread of COVID-19 – 31 December.
We believe that any light that can be shone upon the rates of infection by any Waverley councillor has to be appreciated by the public. We found the in-depth statistical information very useful, as it revealed the hotspots in the borough. We have heard on private e-mails that many Farnham and some Cranleigh and eastern villages residents have found it very helpful. Let’s hope it makes us all very wary of what we do and how we do it -doesn’t it? We are not aware that on the official WBC website there such detailed information. Well done Cllr Hyman for the hard work this must have entailed.
You will see the light orange and darker orange hotspots for the period under Cllr Jerry’s microscope a few days earlier. These include – Farnham – to be expected in view of shoppers flooding in from Tier 4 areas when Waverley remained in Tier 2. However, the higher infection rate in small villages such as Witley and Wormley – are not easily explained. Could this be as a result of schools – such as `King Edwards – or perhaps Surrey County Council’s decision to send everyone from the eastern villages to the Witley dump? Cranleigh’s recycling centre is only open for certain materials on a Monday and at weekends so it’s off to Witley they all are forced to go?
The infection rate in Cranleigh is growing, as is Godalming where its popular shops had a burst of activity shortly before Christmas.
Waverley COVID-19 Cases 29 Dec, 3 sheets
The latest on schools in Waverley is as follows:
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GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard. You must have WebGL installed and enabled on your browser to use the interactive map.
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Judging by some of the comments coming from junior doctors – remember the guys and gals our MP Jeremy Hunt had a fight with a while back when he was Secretary of State for Health? Here’s what one told us.
“Just spoke with a junior doctor. She’s broken. Physically and mentally exhausted. Her hospital is on the verge of not being able to cope. Strongly believes that without public support and people sticking to the rules the NHS isn’t going to be able to save you.” #Covid19UK
And if the message below doesn’t keep us all here in Waverley away from meeting up with your friends or family tonight, for a New Year’s Eve celebration – nothing will!
Remember Terry Waite who was held hostage in Beirut for 1,763 days? He had an enforced lockdown and was held in solitary confinement for most of this period.
But speaking on the radio recently, he said what’s the big deal if we miss out one Christmas or New Year? There are worst things in life…..being on a ventilator gasping for breath is one of them. See sense – stay safe!
I note that Mr Hyman has signed off the spreadsheets “Author: Cllr Jerry Hyman” (with his Waverley Borough Council email address) So is it safe to assume that Mr Hyman provided these spreadsheets to Councillors and the Public on an official capacity, acting upon WBC’s instructions?
Of that we are unsure. Though we suspect that any light that can be shone upon the rates of infection by any Waverley councillor has to be appreciated by the public. We found the in-depth statistical information very useful, as it revealed the hotspots in the borough. We have heard on private e-mails that many Farnham and some Cranleigh people have found it very helpful. It makes us all very wary of what we do and how we live doesn’t it? We are not aware that on the official WBC website there such detailed information. Well done Cllr Hyman for the hard work this must have entailed.
I don’t question Mr Hyman’s motives or his skill with Excel, and he should be congratulated for his endeavours.
However, it may well be that the reasons no other Councillor at WBC has produced such reports could be:
1.They don’t possess any qualifications in statistical modelling
2.They don’t have access to all the data required to produce a
high degree of reliability
3.They don’t have access to third party verification to check their
validity
One of the problems in getting down to such local granularity (using small numbers), is that as the variables change quickly over short periods, so the results can swing wildly in any direction.
Whilst I understand the wish for us all to see what is happening in our own particular local area. Personally, I would prefer to rely on the Surrey CC Covid Dashboard which is updated daily, rather than unverified spreadsheets produced by a gifted amateur.
(It should be noted that Surrey County Council are the responsible authority for providing the public with local Covid Data, not Waverley Borough Council) There is also access here to bi-weekly in depth reporting:
https://www.surreycc.gov.uk/people-and-community/emergency-planning-and-community-safety/coronavirus/alert-levels-and-local-outbreak-plan/figures-and-statistics/daily-data
John, sorry if it is unclear, it’s just the ‘granular’ local data that is available daily to everyone but which would be lost if not recorded and collated by a random nerd.
Regarding responsibility, I thought it best that the spreadsheet should identify who collated the data, rather than attract criticism for not doing so! Hence it would be safer to assume that it is what it says it is, and that if it was Waverley’s it would probably say so. If you’d like me to add anything you’d find useful to the spreadsheets, please let me know.
For clarity, I’ve always included the data source attributions ; in other words, it records the daily PHE data from the government Coronavirus Dashboard (and Map) Daily Updates which is no longer available when the Dashboard and Map are updated the next day. The spreadsheet simply collates ‘official’ data which people might find useful, but which (to my knowledge) is not collated elsewhere.
It is the same data as used by Surrey CC ; I stopped including comparative datasheets for all the Surrey Districts after the old copycats at SCC decided to record that data themselves. You could be right. If SCC think it’s a useful thing to do, perhaps it isn’t.
I’ve recently found ONS monthly Covid-19 deaths data for each of the Waverley MSOAs (March to December 2020), so I’m adding that to the main spreadsheet and will send to WW shortly.
Thanks John, you’re probably right to question the level of numeracy at Waverley, though to be fair we do have some other engineers and physicists among the Councillors, including the Mayor Dr Penny Marriott ; Dr Peter Marriott certainly has experience in statistical modelling too. That said, my spreadsheets involve no statistical modelling whatsoever, they are just collated data.
The source data is available to all, even councillors. One of the main reasons for collating it is that many people share your concerns regarding veracity and the reliability of ‘official’ Covid-related data.
The overall purpose is to increase interest, knowledge and understanding, so that we can find the best solution and avoid further unnecessary premature loss of life.
I’m sorry but I don’t really know what the rest of your response is trying to say. It is not ‘my’ data. The spreadsheet simply enables scrutiny and comparison of the ‘official’ published data and trends. Anyone can check and record the Daily Dashboard figures for themselves if they don’t trust me to type it into a spreadsheet, it’s hardly a gift, and I’d be happy for you to check or share the workload if you think it might be useful.
It prompted Surrey to collate the district-level comparative data themselves, which relies upon exactly the same ‘unverified’ PHE data, but I’m glad they’re doing it now (as it saves me having to) and I’m glad you seem to think that’s useful.
Your kind words are appreciated, and you’re obviously right that the wider view and trends are important, but those figures are (or should be) just the sum of the detailed data behind them. Some people aren’t entirely confident that we should simply ‘trust the experts’ whose way of thinking has got us where we are at present.
The price of our failure will be borne by the young. I think we may need some teenage Covid mutant heroes to save them, but we haven’t found them yet. If anyone wants to be useful, produce some teenagers with attitude. Mine are in their thirties and I’m not starting again.
It’s becoming increasingly important that we get to understand the detailed death data, so I’m adding it to the spreadsheet. Please let me know asap if you’ve a good reason why I shouldn’t. I’d be interested in WW’s readers’ considered views as to the extent to which we are going to have to learn to live with it.
– [Cllr Jerry Hyman, acting in a personal capacity, socially and suitably distanced from Waverley.]