Another little missive from Waverley Councillor Nick Palmer.


There’s a lot of partial Covid virus information zooming about the internet, some of it actually wrong. In case you’ve not seen it, I thought I’d pass you the link for the key report that seems to be driving Government strategy (apologies if you’ve already read it). Because my background is mathematics and politics, I’ve always read a lot of this sort of stuff for fun (weird hobby, but hey), so if anything is obscure please just ask and I may be able to help.

This gives useful guidance for each age group on whether one’s likely to need hospital care if one catches the virus, whether such care would need to be intensive and how long one would be likely to need in hospital. Bottom line is that the mortality rate with proper treatment is low (even if you’re over 80, you have a 90% chance of getting through it if you catch the virus, and if you’re under 40 it’s 99.92%!) but the proportion needing critical care is relatively high, especially over age 50 (see page 5). The priority is therefore to ensure that we don’t all need care at once!
Page 6 looks at the different strategies for achieving that and makes it clear why the Government has suddenly swung behind strict measures. It is not especially worrying that we may need treatment; it is however crucial that we don’t need treatment that the NHS can’t provide due to overload, especially as people get ill with other things too and they can’t neglect those
This is the current guidance defining what social distancing means. Many of you are youngsters so may not feel quite as affected as the elderly, but some of it applies to you too, and you may have vulnerable relatives who would be interested.
I can’t stress enough that this is not a situation where most of us are at extreme risk; rather, it’s a case where everyone is at some risk and the need is to protect the facilities from overload so that everyone gets the care they need if they need it.
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Best wishes
Nick Palmer
(Labour Councillor for Binscombe)
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6 thoughts on “Another little missive from Waverley Councillor Nick Palmer.”

  1. That picture says it all doesn’t it? The stock-piling pillocks should be deeply ashamed of themselves. Thank God we’ve seen the first signs of rationing. Thanks to Nick Palmer for providing the link to Imperial College’s modelling document. It makes scary but at the same time reassuring reading. We are obviously in this for the long haul with a few short breaks to stop the population going nuts.
    We need to protect the ability of the NHS to protect us all. Staff testing is crucial. So is protecting the economy, if we are to prevent financial meltdown.

    1. Yes, full marks to Nick Palmer. The information provided in the link to Imperial College does make absolute sense and reassured us here at team Waverley Web.

      However, we are becoming increasingly concerned at reports we are receiving privately from NHS workers who are working tirelessly whilst not being properly protected. How can that possibly make sense?

  2. Thanks Nick Palmer for sharing these interesting documents.
    I hope that we do not all get mad staying away from people contact. Lets hope that a vaccine is able to be produced quicker than forecast, that it is effective and that the virus does not mutate each year

    1. Share your views Charles and agree with the sentiment that a vaccine will become available earlier than expected.

  3. The Vaccine can be developed reasonably quickly its the testing on the human guinea pigs that takes the time – often 12 months to ensure a: it works and B: its safe

  4. We understand that people are putting themselves forward as human guinea pigs, how unselfish is that.

    Pity that a few other greedy people who are stripping supermaket aisles didn’t demonstrate a fraction of their unselfishness! There is ample to feed the need of the world but not the greed of the world.

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